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28 May 2009

2009 K3 Asteroid or Dormant Comet Headed Towards Earth Pass? 27MAY09

Yesterday the circular for MPEC 2009-K39 : 2009 KC3 was edited- 25MAY09

http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/mpec/K09/K09K39.html
2009 KC3 it's an asteroid of around 1 Km in diameter with a MOID of 0.00967772 AU and with a very like comet orbit, the 1st and 2nd September 2009 shall be of 15.4a and the 24th and 25th August shall be at 0.049 U.A. from the Earth.

http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/MPEph/MPEph.htm
Around 29 August the asteroid shall pass in the near same place where shall be the Earth two day after,

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2009+KC3+&orb=1
At today the object it's only an asteroid but, if it's a dormient comet at the end of August this year we can to have an outburst (probably little) of slow meteors.The orbit it's calculated from an arc of only 20 days, then can change a little.

---Here is what I came up with using the elements from MPEC 2009-K39 : 2009 KC3
The asteroid will arrive at the ascending node of its orbit at 20:45 UT on August 29 and the Earth will be closest to the node at 09:15 UT on September 2 (3.52 days after the asteroid). The distance separating the two orbits at that time will be 0.014 AU.
Interestingly, going backwards in time, the asteroid's perihelion distance and orbital period seems to increase; a century ago perihelion may have been ~0.17 AU larger and its period ~0.4 year longer.
Around 1989, the orbit of Earth and the asteroid virtually intersected at the node. Looking ahead in time, the asteroid's perihelion distance and orbital period will once again increase.
In 2109 perihelion may be ~0.18 AU larger and its period ~0.4 longer. In 2028, the asteroid arrives at the node about 20-days AFTER the Earth.
Anybody else have anything to add? If there is any material trailing behind 2009 KC3, it appears that the best time to look for any associated meteor activity would be on the morning of September 2, 2009.

Roberto . . . did you calculate a possible radiant?-- by Joe Rao

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

what tool did you use to see the orbit in 1989? Actually it's not surprising to detect a collision "in the past" because classical mechanics is invertible only when you know every objects position and speed.